USC Forecast: Orange County Rents to Rise Through 2029

The USC Lusk Center for Real Estate released its Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. Across Southern California, the report projects annual rent growth of 1.9% in Orange County.

Orange County's average rent was $2,792 in June. USC said that Orange County's average rent will rise 1.9% from $2,792 to $2,946 over the next three years, the highest in Southern California.

Researchers described Orange County's situation as a "persistent rental deficit," with a pronounced affordability gap. The forecast found that average rent in the area is 18% higher than in LA County.

USC said multifamily housing production in the county is "paltry," with new developments expected to shrink 40% by 2029.

The report said San Diego County added about 16,000 apartments since late 2023, roughly twice the new supply added in Orange County during that period.

The forecast projects rent growth in every county it covers. Orange County sits near the top of the range.

Average San Diego County rents are about 7% below Orange County's, according to the forecast.

The forecast points to costs. It cited persistent inflation and high construction costs as obstacles to future housing development.

Researchers said that inflation, higher interest rates and increased construction costs have made building new housing difficult, causing California to fall behind other states.

Permits for new apartments were 60% higher than last year's monthly average. Researchers expressed concern that developments may not actually be built because of higher labor, material and financing costs.

The forecast cautioned that new housing deliveries are expected to slow.

No. The forecast describes trends in the multifamily residential real estate market and analyzes relationships among market demand, supply, prices and policies.

The reports give rent and apartment figures. They do not give custom home prices or permit times for Orange County.

We read the forecast as a picture of rental demand and building cost pressure. It does not set a price for your home.

We price custom homes cost-plus. We give an estimate, and the client pays the cost of the work plus an agreed fee, so the final cost can land above or below the estimate.

Custom homes typically run $450 to $900+ per finished square foot.

For a custom home, the price per finished square foot covers design and plans, construction and finishes. It does not include a pool or landscaping.

This is a preliminary planning range for budgeting only. Actual project cost is established only after a site visit and a signed written agreement.

Permit and design fees typically run $15K to $80K+ for a custom home, depending on what the city charges.

A custom home typically takes 18 to 24+ months from final design to certificate of occupancy.

To talk through your own project, book a free call. The complimentary project consultation is 45 minutes, over Zoom.